# Armin Thomas — prediction record



## Is Armin Thomas accurate?

Across 22 graded calls in 3 articles, Armin Thomas scores 95.69% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 29.04, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 95.69%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 29.04
- **Graded articles:** 3
- **Graded individual calls:** 22
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 54.12% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (3)

### Sep 27, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call

Thomas argues that increased turnout and registration would not be enough to flip Texas, and cites Split Ticket's own model giving Democratic challenger Colin Allred only a 30% chance of upsetting Ted Cruz in the 2024 Texas Senate race — i.e., Cruz is favored.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d54c96a-f5a0-4d19-b745-3bb26b14fc4c

### Nov 6, 2022 — scored 89.47 across 19 calls

In Split Ticket's final 2022 gubernatorial ratings, he forecast Republican wins in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin among the tossups, Democratic wins in Kansas and Oregon, and safe or likely holds elsewhere, including comfortable Democratic victories in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New York and Republican holds in Alaska, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5c95246f-d22f-43f9-bbab-eddae21d78d3

### Oct 28, 2022 — scored 92.95 across 2 calls

Rates the 2022 Utah Senate race between Mike Lee and independent Evan McMullin as Likely Republican, calling Lee the clear and overwhelming favorite, and projects the likeliest result to be a Lee win by single digits (closest to the "red ripple" Lee +8 scenario).

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e6e525-00b1-41bd-a8bd-9f4536423941


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=armin-thomas