# Ben Krauss — prediction record



## Is Ben Krauss accurate?

Across 3 graded calls in 3 articles, Ben Krauss scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 108.67, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 100%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 108.67
- **Graded articles:** 3
- **Graded individual calls:** 3
- **Clarity:** not enough data
- **Hedged:** not enough data
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (3)

### Sep 28, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call

Krauss expects Republicans to control the Senate after the election, arguing that a President Harris would most likely have to work with a GOP Senate majority.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2952137c-24b6-4171-9b7f-44b7777c8921

### Sep 21, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call

Krauss argues that Kari Lake's attempts to moderate her image have failed and that she is virtually certain to lose Arizona's Senate race, meaning the Democrat takes the seat.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/af139c25-176e-4f70-8226-e279fda91d84

### Jul 20, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call

Krauss argues Trump's campaign money is wasted because they are already set to carry the battleground states by a margin larger than advertising could affect; they also describe Biden's 2024 campaign as doomed.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/167c3034-68a9-4bda-92de-8a916a50d777


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ben-krauss