# Ben Shapiro — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 86.54% - **MissedTakes Score:** 81.65 - **Graded articles:** 8 - **Graded individual calls:** 30 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (8) ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 92.31 across 13 calls On election day 2024 Shapiro gave Trump a slight edge nationally and laid out a map in which Trump sweeps the Sun Belt battlegrounds (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada) and all three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), while Virginia stays blue. He also called Senate races for Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jim Justice in West Virginia. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41065840-38b7-4207-b0de-b7ebb6151443 ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Shapiro explains at length why he voted for Donald Trump and refers to him as the incoming 47th president, treating a Trump victory as the expected outcome while stressing that the polling shows a dead heat and that nobody can know the result in advance. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6debf760-686a-4685-8222-68324f2d420c ### Nov 3, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Shapiro said Donald Trump would lose the national popular vote in 2024 by a relatively significant margin, and that any Trump victory would have to come from narrow wins in a handful of states. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3bfdc054-23f3-4e11-b853-86b8cad09cdf ### Nov 2, 2024 — scored 100 across 4 calls Hosting a pre-election special with Republican Senate candidates, Shapiro predicted Republicans would pick up West Virginia with Jim Justice, and called Dave McCormick, Tim Sheehy and Bernie Moreno the next senators from Pennsylvania, Montana and Ohio respectively. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5767f355-55ea-4248-8259-a4c375632918 ### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 100 across 5 calls Shapiro says his gut tells him Trump wins the presidency, and lays out what he calls the most likely scenario: Trump sweeps the Sun Belt states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, with a good chance of also taking Nevada. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/443d38b4-c8a0-43ea-b216-25c3b9a96836 ### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 100 across 3 calls Shapiro says his gut tells him Trump wins the presidency, and that Trump's momentum should carry Georgia and Arizona for him, while the race ultimately turns on the blue wall states. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/21dc75fb-904c-4382-abd2-82e318d037e2 ### Oct 25, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls Speaking at a Montana rally, Shapiro said he expects Trump to win the presidency and return to the White House in January 2025, and expressed optimism about the Montana Senate race featuring Tim Sheehy. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7001a898-d21e-4fba-a90c-af3addc40995 ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Shapiro argued that the late-breaking media stories would not move the race and described Trump as leading and likely to become the next president. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fb55fbc3-769f-4da5-b7f3-21b3421a7479 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ben-shapiro