# Bill Kristol — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 0%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 0
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 2
- **Clarity:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call

Kristol predicted that Kamala Harris would win the presidential election, citing a late break toward her, the gender gap, and minority voters not deserting her as much as polls suggested.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e81c5972-82b3-4b68-95b3-f5090ffe7fe3

### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call

Kristol said he was slightly optimistic heading into the final week, arguing the swing states were essentially even and any late break should favor Harris, and he stated outright that he thinks she will win the presidency.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d73d0f24-f506-4c05-aaf4-a9cecd5fc65c


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=bill-kristol