# Bret Stephens — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 50%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 0
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 2
- **Clarity:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Oct 25, 2024 — scored 50 across 2 calls

Stephens forecast a split outcome in Congress: Democrats taking the House while Republicans take the Senate.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7cac9f07-f613-4a12-a579-60ce2db64e25


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=bret-stephens