# Carlos Odio — prediction record



## Is Carlos Odio accurate?

Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Carlos Odio scores 9% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 6.59, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 9%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 6.59
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 1
- **Clarity:** not enough data
- **Hedged:** not enough data
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Oct 13, 2024 — scored 9 across 1 call

Discussing Florida, they said a 13- or 10-point Trump win is outside their expectation and that a roughly four-point Trump lead is more in line with what they expect, given only marginal defection from 2020 patterns.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0a2957f5-64b1-4dc1-9270-d39fb256ea0a


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=carlos-odio