# Comfortably Smug — prediction record



## Is Comfortably Smug accurate?

Across 7 graded calls in 2 articles, Comfortably Smug scores 6.67% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -65.8, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 6.67%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -65.8
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 7
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 20% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 8, 2022 — scored 0 across 2 calls

Smug predicted Kari Lake would win the Arizona governor's race on the strength of her base turnout, and said Herschel Walker had closed strong enough to win in Georgia.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/764a5c3a-bd19-4f2c-b6db-8f279d5750a6

### Oct 26, 2022 — scored 8 across 5 calls

Predicted Republicans win a Senate majority with 52 seats, picking up Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c085a1ef-ab31-478b-909e-d63d3056dd50


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=comfortably-smug