# Daniel Horowitz — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 84.17%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 41.47
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 8
- **Clarity:** 92.86%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 73.75 across 4 calls

Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913

### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 90 across 4 calls

Horowitz endorsed the market's heavy odds that Republicans take the Senate, said the GOP wins Montana and reaches at least 51 seats even before counting Ohio or Pennsylvania, and argued the odds of Republicans keeping the House should be nearer 60 percent than the market's even money.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f5073950-8010-4a47-93b0-1aab0fcf1fb1


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=daniel-horowitz