# David Frum — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 86%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 37
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 3
- **Clarity:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 90.67 across 3 calls

Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d801b47f-11b1-4078-a15e-6a8670c71670


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=david-frum