# David Nir — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 100% - **MissedTakes Score:** 0 - **Graded articles:** 5 - **Graded individual calls:** 9 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (5) ### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call In passing, the piece treats North Carolina's governor's race as settled in Democrat Josh Stein's favor, saying he was the favorite even before his Republican opponent's campaign collapsed. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aaee6970-3e68-4c18-a211-0a05f2df0e12 ### Oct 29, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls In a guide to 2024 state legislative battlegrounds, Nir says Minnesota Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison is on track to win her congressional race easily, and that Democrat Josh Stein is favored to win the North Carolina governorship. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8a48e65d-c0d6-4cd8-b37e-7ace2c8a6fe8 ### Oct 24, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call In discussing Ohio's Supreme Court contests, the piece states that Donald Trump is set to win Ohio's presidential vote by a comfortable margin. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/13b4395a-81bf-420c-9f78-9ac7065f1db0 ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 100 across 4 calls Assessing the House Majority PAC's canceled ad reservations, the piece judges that four Democratic incumbents — Sharice Davids (KS-03), Hillary Scholten (MI-03), Greg Landsman (OH-01) and Chris Deluzio (PA-17) — are safe for reelection. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8b90149f-50a5-4d61-84b6-04f0df342123 ### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call In discussing ads against a Montana ballot measure, the piece states that Republican Troy Downing is certain to win the open House seat in Montana's 2nd District, describing the dark-red district as an easy victory for him. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1edb3d60-8260-4623-95ac-d7c1b3f2ffcf --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=david-nir