# David Pakman — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 78.57% - **MissedTakes Score:** 22.03 - **Graded articles:** 7 - **Graded individual calls:** 16 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (7) ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45530dc9-dd97-4b13-ba4a-53e34dcf9e3f ### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Discussing which swing state could decide the presidency, Pakman said North Carolina could be decisive only if Harris won there, but he does not expect her to carry the state — implying Trump takes North Carolina. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf1606d4-631b-4001-a353-7d9a74d64d98 ### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Discussing Virginia's voter-registration purge, he argued it was unlikely to matter because Virginia will vote Democratic in the presidential race anyway and is not a battleground. On Pennsylvania he explicitly declined to make a call, saying the race is a coin flip. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6616ae8c-4aa4-4e43-a6ac-b1a1b03d6e71 ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Pakman said that while Ted Cruz is being forced to defend his Texas Senate seat against Colin Allred in a tighter-than-expected race, the numbers still point to Cruz winning. He also called the presidential race a coin flip, declining to pick a winner. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d11d656b-dfa3-43f7-a8c6-a4ed6538e638 ### Oct 29, 2024 — scored 100 across 5 calls Pakman calls the non-competitive presidential states a week out: Florida for Trump, with New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts going to Harris. He also says Kari Lake is about to lose the Arizona Senate race to Ruben Gallego, and treats Pennsylvania as genuinely uncertain, laying out scenarios in both directions. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3a530696-c478-4064-9002-506b5184c8ec ### Oct 24, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Pakman calls the presidential race a coin flip but says Trump will almost certainly lose the national popular vote, even if he could still prevail in the Electoral College. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4593d193-c1d3-4ea2-a92a-b355bddb1608 ### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 50 across 6 calls Pakman gives his most likely presidential outcome: the 2020 map with Georgia and Arizona flipping to Trump, but Harris still winning the presidency with a narrower electoral margin than Biden. He says he is not ready to flip Pennsylvania or Wisconsin from the Democratic column, and that Trump probably won't win New Hampshire. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3ef0c251-9e50-4138-a342-5e585567ff3b --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=david-pakman