# Doug Sosnik — prediction record



## Is Doug Sosnik accurate?

Across 5 graded calls in 1 article, Doug Sosnik scores 87.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 77.25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 87.5%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 77.25
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 5
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 12.5% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Oct 9, 2026 — scored 80 across 5 calls

Sosnik predicted a strong Democratic midterm in which Democrats win back the House, called the Senate a coin flip, said North Carolina is essentially in the Democratic column and Georgia's Democratic seat is effectively secured, and argued Democrats cannot win Texas.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bde45f29-72a1-4c3e-b3f8-97e1bac2695c


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=doug-sosnik