# Erick-Woods Erickson — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 95.5% - **MissedTakes Score:** 68.71 - **Graded articles:** 10 - **Graded individual calls:** 28 - **Clarity:** 100% LIMITED SAMPLE: between 10 and 29 graded articles. Treat with caution. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (10) ### Nov 6, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 ### Nov 6, 2024 — scored 100 across 3 calls Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 50 across 4 calls On Election Day morning Erickson said Trump's coattails might pull Kari Lake to victory in Arizona, that Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania could win their Senate races, and that he was increasingly convinced Trump would carry Nevada. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2b8a0f54-ff84-4006-963c-d87a3a582528 ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 91.67 across 3 calls He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Writing on Election Day 2024, Erickson says he can't call the race but that, based on early-voting trends and campaign behavior, Trump has the edge and more paths to 270 electoral votes than Harris. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/613e2ef4-8a44-48bf-99d4-93b7895c638d ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls On the eve of the election he calls the presidential race for Donald Trump, arguing that economic and border fundamentals outweigh a late drift of undecided voters toward Harris, while conceding he would not be surprised by a Harris win. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0de6667b-9595-4376-bf00-b6f52eb91641 ### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls Erickson says his instinct is that the presidential race is leaning Republican, though he stresses the contest is close and either side could win. He also argues Republican early-vote dominance in Florida has put that state out of Democrats' reach. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/39ca1222-1ce2-4a75-91c2-96f3fc1a7ee4 ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Erickson argues the press corps' anti-Trump bias will be repaid with a Trump win, stating outright that Trump's victory is coming, and suggests Harris's candidacy is collapsing as even sympathetic reporters turn pessimistic. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/576a2068-10e0-47dc-9f7c-dc38e47c1f6b ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 80 across 5 calls Thirteen days out, Erickson says he is restraining himself from flatly declaring Trump the winner, arguing a tied race favors Trump given his history of outperforming polls. He also expects Harris to carry Nevada despite her collapsing numbers there, expects Kari Lake to be routed in Arizona's Senate race, and says Harris will not carry Texas, Florida or Kentucky. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/21b73dab-8f6d-4ab2-8a02-ce3f47eddd69 ### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 100 across 4 calls Erickson argues that Harris's late-campaign travel to Texas, Kentucky and Florida — states he says she cannot carry — mirrors Bob Dole's 1996 pivot to down-ballot races, signaling she will lose the presidency to Trump while trying to protect congressional seats. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/78684e3a-51ec-4977-86c5-fef9deaca0a7 ### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Erickson argues that anti-Trump Republicans like Sarah Longwell, Liz Cheney and the Lincoln Project backed Harris without extracting any moderation, and that in doing so they have set up Donald Trump to win a second term. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0cd3d256-03e2-4f28-8617-9fbd63d5d205 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson