# Erin Covey — prediction record



## Is Erin Covey accurate?

Across 7 graded calls in 1 article, Erin Covey scores 78.33% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -10.2, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 78.33%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -10.2
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 7
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 83.33% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Oct 17, 2024 — scored 81.43 across 7 calls

Covey said whichever party wins the House will do so by only a couple of seats and that Republicans have the slightest of edges, citing Cook's tally of 202 races favoring Democrats and 207 favoring Republicans. She also gave Cook's ratings: Lean Democratic in Oregon's 6th, Lean Democratic for Brandon Williams' upstate New York seat and Marcy Kaptur's Ohio seat, and Republicans as slight favorites to hold New York's 17th.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/01391804-a22a-4b3c-9c5b-e9d6ef9d3acd


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erin-covey