# Gavin Carlson — prediction record



## Is Gavin Carlson accurate?

Across 12 graded calls in 3 articles, Gavin Carlson scores 66.03% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 42.37, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 66.03%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 42.37
- **Graded articles:** 3
- **Graded individual calls:** 12
- **Clarity:** 88.24%
- **Hedged:** 32.35% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (3)

### Oct 30, 2026 — scored 88.1 across 1 call

Carlson predicted a 24-14 Rams win over the Chargers and offered a bold prediction that Aaron Donald would have a big game and record their first sack.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6e35781d-3fc4-4b0f-af99-bea0a4e983dd

### Oct 8, 2026 — scored 50 across 1 call

Previewing the Monday night meeting in Los Angeles, they picked the Rams to beat the Bills 27-24, saying the game would come down to whoever has the ball last.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3de3e93-ebce-43ce-b7e1-6a0723fa0231

### May 19, 2026 — scored 60 across 10 calls

Carlson went game-by-game through the Rams' 2026 schedule, picking losses at Denver, at San Francisco, to Green Bay and in the Week 18 rematch with Seattle, finishing 13-4 as NFC West champions with a first-round bye.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/204238c3-a246-4c2a-a708-95c2390df560


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=gavin-carlson