# Harrison Lavelle — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 100%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 33.33
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 3
- **Clarity:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 100 across 3 calls

Walking through early-vote data in five states, he reports Split Ticket's model ratings: Florida Likely Republican with Trump's margin expanding over 2020, North Carolina and Arizona both Leans Republican (Arizona a flip from 2020), while Pennsylvania and Nevada are left as pure tossups.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48d2ce98-1022-46fd-b76c-727b908c54bb


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=harrison-lavelle