# Isaac Saul — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 79.63% - **MissedTakes Score:** 75.96 - **Graded articles:** 9 - **Graded individual calls:** 18 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (9) ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 50 across 2 calls Saul sticks with the prediction he made two weeks earlier: Trump wins the presidency overall while losing Pennsylvania, even though he concedes he'd probably pick Harris if making the call fresh. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0d868d-0cbe-4cd5-9ad2-059bd6ccb7a1 ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 50 across 2 calls Saul says that although new polling (including Selzer's Iowa survey) would push him toward Harris if he were choosing now, he is sticking with his earlier call that Trump wins the presidency while losing Pennsylvania. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/652fc278-a29c-4db4-a40d-ea6167503ea3 ### Nov 3, 2024 — scored 66.67 across 3 calls Saul predicted Trump would lose Pennsylvania but carry Michigan, and said he had picked Trump to win the presidency overall — calling a Harris win in Pennsylvania paired with an overall loss a fairly likely outcome. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0d01685b-46fd-4c8e-b897-d661b3ee0b28 ### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 50 across 4 calls Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fae76e06-7347-4e3d-b978-448ce89230c0 ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Discussing the fallout from the Madison Square Garden rally, Saul characterized the Trump campaign as being in a strong position to win the presidential election while prone to self-inflicted damage. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d2531ca4-60d1-48ee-b96f-ed8c924704d8 ### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Saul reiterates his earlier prediction that Kamala Harris will lose Michigan, citing Arab American and pro-Palestinian voters defecting to Jill Stein, Trump, or staying home, and his view that polls rarely break toward Democrats there. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1a5b20df-0116-4ce8-aca3-6f88f9d7dce6 ### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Saul reiterates his earlier call that Trump will carry Michigan, arguing Harris's erosion among Arab American and Muslim voters, third-party defections to Jill Stein, and historically Democratic-friendly polling error will sink her in the state. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2e19977b-068d-411c-a9d0-bf7e7a35b7c2 ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls Saul says the presidential race is essentially a coin flip but concludes that Republicans' structural advantages mean Trump ultimately wins, and that Democrats will likely lose their Senate majority given how many seats they are defending. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/585f0133-b671-48ea-b0de-c290a8ed2294 ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls Saul calls the presidential race a coin flip but says Republicans' structural advantages lead him to expect Trump to win, and he also expects Democrats to lose their Senate majority given the map they are defending. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b31db6af-6d98-4663-8517-5352a664234a --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=isaac-saul