# Jacob Rubashkin — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 80.36%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 25.96
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 12
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 60 across 5 calls

Rubashkin said Republicans are still favored to take the Senate, rated Iowa's 1st District tilt Democratic for Christina Bohannon, called Pennsylvania's 10th tilt Republican and Maryland's 3rd a near-certain Democratic hold for Sarah Elfreth, and said he would still rather be Harris than Trump in the presidential race.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6529faa2-303c-4baf-8715-a5dc608dff88

### Oct 25, 2024 — scored 85.71 across 7 calls

Walking through Inside Elections' latest ratings changes, Rubashkin kept Nebraska's Senate race leaning toward Deb Fischer despite independent Dan Osborn's rise, and shifted eight House races: Democrats now favored in California's 13th (a flip), Nevada's 4th, New York's 22nd, Ohio's 13th and Texas' 34th. He also said Democrats are already favored in Nebraska's 2nd District.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/20225531-2741-4cbd-84d1-f9888f0b0709


---

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jacob-rubashkin