# Jake Arthur — prediction record ## Is Jake Arthur accurate? Across 8 graded calls in 6 articles, Jake Arthur scores 68.65% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 25.84, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 68.65% - **MissedTakes Score:** 25.84 - **Graded articles:** 6 - **Graded individual calls:** 8 - **Clarity:** 100% - **Hedged:** 23.08% of claims - **Right when hedging:** not enough data - **Right when committing:** not enough data PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (6) ### Nov 7, 2026 — scored 96.43 across 2 calls Arthur predicted the Cowboys would beat the Colts 31-24 at Lucas Oil Stadium, a closer loss than Indianapolis' recent blowouts, citing Dallas' large talent edge offset by its poor defense. They also made several lineup calls for the game and suggested it could be Jonathan Taylor's last home game as a Colt ahead of the trade deadline. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/761f3196-3e96-41ba-8e84-27d80205f0c4 ### Oct 30, 2026 — scored 29.76 across 2 calls Arthur predicted a lopsided Jaguars win over the Colts in Jacksonville, 31-13, continuing the Colts' losing streak there, while offering a 'bold' counter-prediction that Daniel Jones accounts for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6d371d6d-9bb9-4350-a7a8-9c3c49578184 ### Oct 23, 2026 — scored 90.48 across 1 call Arthur picked the Vikings to beat the Colts 23-13, saying they don't see a path for Indianapolis unless they win the turnover battle and run the ball effectively. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6842df29-f423-4b08-8f48-5414678e7ccb ### Oct 17, 2026 — scored 21.43 across 1 call Arthur predicts the Colts blow out the winless Titans at home for their first lopsided win of the season, 34-16, with Tennessee managing a touchdown and a few field goals. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1037fac2-68df-4348-831e-ddef1e1c6daf ### Oct 2, 2026 — scored 76.19 across 1 call Arthur picked the Colts to beat the Commanders in London in a low-scoring game, predicting a 20-13 final with Indianapolis' healthier roster making the difference. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/43c0724a-9938-4132-9917-acf3847fc301 ### Sep 18, 2026 — scored 97.62 across 1 call Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca7ab74e-ab34-4ed6-a77f-2c7e9f8c8c4d --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jake-arthur