# Jason Johnson — prediction record



## Is Jason Johnson accurate?

Across 7 graded calls in 1 article, Jason Johnson scores 31.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -22.87, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 31.5%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -22.87
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 7
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 12.5% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Nov 4, 2022 — scored 30.86 across 7 calls

Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as his biggest upsets. He also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b93eea4c-b3ad-4d2d-b9cd-f9b6c17d6a86


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jason-johnson