# Jesse Kelly — prediction record



## Is Jesse Kelly accurate?

Across 2 graded calls in 1 article, Jesse Kelly scores 0% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -67.5, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 0%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -67.5
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 2
- **Clarity:** not enough data
- **Hedged:** not enough data
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Nov 4, 2022 — scored 0 across 2 calls

Kelly predicted Republicans would end up with 54 Senate seats and pick up well over 40 House seats in the midterms.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/736e7c22-e11f-4a74-8f71-f8182e2da677


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jesse-kelly