# Jim Geraghty — prediction record ## Is Jim Geraghty accurate? Across 28 graded calls in 4 articles, Jim Geraghty scores 61.74% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -0.69, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 61.74% - **MissedTakes Score:** -0.69 - **Graded articles:** 4 - **Graded individual calls:** 28 - **Clarity:** 100% - **Hedged:** 13.49% of claims - **Right when hedging:** not enough data - **Right when committing:** not enough data PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (4) ### Sep 25, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls Walking through his Senate map, Geraghty said Jim Justice is all but certain to win West Virginia's Senate race, and he dismissed talk of a Democratic upset over Deb Fischer in Nebraska, noting Democrats had not spent money there. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0f79cfdf-f102-4c80-95c4-d660154c5c07 ### Nov 9, 2022 — scored 66.67 across 9 calls Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 ### Nov 8, 2022 — scored 43.89 across 9 calls Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bdd2c52-9d51-432d-8366-c693d886726e ### Nov 8, 2022 — scored 41.25 across 8 calls Geraghty predicted a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of 235 seats to 200 for Democrats (within a 229–241 range), and a 51–48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning their races. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e9684c02-ae93-4584-ad4d-356dcc03ec84 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jim-geraghty