# Josh Holmes — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 100% - **MissedTakes Score:** 20.2 - **Graded articles:** 5 - **Graded individual calls:** 5 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (5) ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Holmes said Jim Banks is likely to win Indiana's Senate race and that they expect a Republican victory there, likely the first federal race called. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4ad46ccf-ec46-4431-87fa-a387f0a62f1a ### Nov 2, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Holmes said he has long believed North Carolina will break for Trump, and that it will do so late in the count. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3f756a38-73f7-47de-8b14-039c1eba96a4 ### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Holmes treats a Trump victory as a given, referring to Trump as the future president and joking about the concession call he will receive from Kamala Harris. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4c117158-63a6-42e0-bfd9-0248d122a3bf ### Oct 29, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Holmes said he feels good about North Carolina, arguing the state has repeatedly broken late toward Republicans and that it is just a matter of banking votes, concluding Republicans will carry it. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e148dd4c-2141-4b94-b122-ce9662866d06 ### Oct 26, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Reviewing battleground polling, he said he was very confident about North Carolina, arguing the state breaks late and decisively Republican and that no one there would have reason to vote for Kamala Harris. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3015963c-9ee8-4b7e-a212-bc5c6ea0160c --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=josh-holmes