# Justin Penik — prediction record



## Is Justin Penik accurate?

Across 15 graded calls in 2 articles, Justin Penik scores 32.46% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -27.74, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 32.46%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -27.74
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 15
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 25% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Mar 6, 2025 — scored 20.83 across 8 calls

Pennock predicted Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh, Zach Baun re-signing in Philadelphia, Charvarius Ward and Jamien Sherwood to Washington, Cam Robinson to Chicago as left tackle, Cam Bynum to the Jets, Darius Slayton to the Chargers, Aaron Jones back to Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers to the Giants.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4af0c93c-46f5-4a2c-ae24-e6ffa81a6559

### Jan 15, 2025 — scored 37.62 across 7 calls

Pennock ranks the eight remaining playoff quarterbacks by conference (Mahomes over Allen over Lamar in the AFC; Stafford, Goff, Daniels, Hurts in the NFC), names Lamar Jackson as MVP, and picks the Chiefs, Lions and Bills to win their divisional games — plus the Lions to beat the Eagles if they meet.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605f970a-3ec8-45ef-8c27-77ba5fffa7fb


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=justin-penik