# Keith Rabois — prediction record



## Is Keith Rabois accurate?

Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Keith Rabois scores 89% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 89.86, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 89%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 89.86
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 1
- **Clarity:** not enough data
- **Hedged:** not enough data
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Oct 9, 2024 — scored 89 across 1 call

In a Twitter exchange recounted on the show, the investor insisted Trump would carry Florida by a wide margin — at least eight points and possibly ten or twelve.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83ac5ea2-3d31-4c7a-bd44-a6edc2bcec4f


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=keith-rabois