# Krystal Ball — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 36% - **MissedTakes Score:** -22.9 - **Graded articles:** 5 - **Graded individual calls:** 16 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (5) ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Ball predicted that Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson will lose the North Carolina governor's race by a double-digit margin, possibly 15 to 20 points. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ed63bda8-2b48-4746-b4c8-609323f8ca80 ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 0 across 8 calls Krystal predicted a Kamala Harris landslide in which Harris wins the presidency and carries all seven battleground states, arguing pollsters have missed a post-Roe shift among women. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dcc4d72f-d3a8-46e2-8152-5630053196f9 ### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Discussing why Harris campaigned in Houston, she said Texas was useful as a backdrop and for Senate help but that Harris has no chance of carrying the state's presidential vote. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1eabfac2-abff-4ea0-943d-6291f20a3bfc ### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 80 across 5 calls Ball doubts Trump will win the national popular vote, and dismisses the idea that he can carry Virginia, New Mexico, New Jersey or Colorado, while calling the presidential race overall a coin flip. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/db59f0f5-a2ca-4bff-8bc8-62d603e33166 ### Oct 24, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Discussing Harris's path to 270, Ball said the Nebraska swing district's electoral vote looks essentially locked up for Harris based on current polling. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23c62017-6198-4358-bfb2-59a3a9d3a172 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=krystal-ball