# Lakshya Jain — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 49.99% - **MissedTakes Score:** 6.38 - **Graded articles:** 4 - **Graded individual calls:** 58 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (4) ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 75.44 across 43 calls Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5 ### Nov 2, 2024 — scored 50 across 2 calls As co-author of the Split Ticket forecast piece, he endorses the model's call that Harris is a narrow 53% favorite for the presidency and that Iowa leans Republican with Trump at 76% to hold it. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c4ad6403-c190-4f2f-ace0-a917ca86ca3f ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 25.97 across 3 calls Walking through Split Ticket's model state by state, Jain said Trump narrowly takes North Carolina by about a point, while Harris holds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, with Michigan her safest at roughly a point and a half to two points. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/308da49d-b785-4223-92bc-513468257e86 ### Oct 26, 2024 — scored 40 across 10 calls Split Ticket's model makes Kamala Harris a narrow 53% favorite in the Electoral College, with Harris the slightest favorite in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada and Trump slightly ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. It also has Republicans as significant favorites to take the Senate and Democrats marginally favored (52%) to flip the House. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aa2e619b-e345-474e-8e76-8853e0ad14f4 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain