# Mike Murphy — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 0%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 0
- **Graded articles:** 3
- **Graded individual calls:** 4
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (3)

### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call

Murphy says he now expects Kamala Harris to win the presidency, upgrading his confidence from none to low-to-medium.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4eb9d33e-5443-434c-8c70-683560c5cccf

### Oct 29, 2024 — scored 0 across 2 calls

Murphy says his gut is that Trump has a ceiling and the late break goes to Harris, and that if forced to bet he would bet on her winning, though only narrowly in the electoral college. He also says she will certainly win the national popular vote.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4d62a13-5fbf-4290-946f-681ca7962ea8

### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call

Murphy says he has shifted off his earlier view that Trump would win if the election were held immediately, and now, forced to choose, he would predict Harris wins the presidency.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/64ed31eb-7b3b-4da5-8e54-9bcb3c60c5f9


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=mike-murphy