# Mike Warren — prediction record



## Is Mike Warren accurate?

Across 5 graded calls in 2 articles, Mike Warren scores 75% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 51.25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 75%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 51.25
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 5
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 33.33% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Oct 16, 2026 — scored 50 across 2 calls

Warren said Republicans are going to lose the open North Carolina Senate seat, and that although the Democrat in South Carolina is a good fit for coastal Republican voters, it will not be enough for them to win that seat.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/efe7425d-8763-4c7a-a119-43f8f7f99f4e

### Oct 9, 2026 — scored 100 across 3 calls

Warren said Democrats are more likely than not to win the House majority, that Josh Shapiro is headed for a lopsided reelection win in Pennsylvania, and that Jon Ossoff is about to win reelection in Georgia.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/de965088-601b-432f-ab3e-fe1d3be2075d


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=mike-warren