# Nate Silver — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 62.5% - **MissedTakes Score:** 63.13 - **Graded articles:** 4 - **Graded individual calls:** 5 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (4) ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Surveying the seven swing states the day before the election, Silver said the race was essentially a coin flip nationally but singled out Arizona as the state Trump was most likely to carry, while noting Harris appeared somewhat stronger in Michigan and Wisconsin. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e9cc0688-12c5-4cde-95ee-5591d717960d ### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 50 across 2 calls A week before the 2024 election, he reported his own Silver Bulletin model as giving Harris a 45.3% chance in the electoral college — roughly a 55-45 edge for Trump — while making her a heavy favorite (71.4%) to win the national popular vote. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/674f495e-0c97-4e44-bb2f-03eb31a92571 ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Citing his own Silver Bulletin model, Nate Silver put Harris slightly ahead of Trump in the presidential race, while cautioning the margin is close to a coin flip and that the Electoral College still tilts toward Trump. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/39472e32-c093-44c0-a660-5ec95fe72c88 ### Oct 24, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Citing his own Silver Bulletin model, Silver put Trump at a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College versus 47% for Harris, calling the race very close and noting Harris has never clearly pulled ahead in the Electoral College. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d4bc2f-f207-4adf-9d88-8c9233ce3264 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nate-silver