# Rich Baris — prediction record



## Is Rich Baris accurate?

Across 12 graded calls in 2 articles, Rich Baris scores 75.83% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 18.2, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 75.83%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 18.2
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 12
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 40% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 7, 2022 — scored 62 across 5 calls

Barris called Republicans taking the House a foregone conclusion with a seat gain he put at the low end around 15-20, projected Republicans at about 52 Senate seats, said Abigail Spanberger would lose in Virginia's 7th, and expected Democrats to hold Virginia's 10th.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eedfc6a0-bb67-4834-9391-e4018f0ac573

### Nov 1, 2022 — scored 71.43 across 7 calls

Baris forecast a Republican wipeout, saying Christine Drazan would win the Oregon governorship with 42-45% of the vote, that Lombardo and Laxalt would both beat Democratic incumbents in Nevada, that Ron Johnson was cruising in Wisconsin, and that Florida and Georgia were safe/likely Republican holds.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/22060eb4-90ce-4455-aca9-4db6fde7387f


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=rich-baris