# Richard Hanania — prediction record



## Is Richard Hanania accurate?

Across 6 graded calls in 2 articles, Richard Hanania scores 62.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 34.67, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 62.5%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 34.67
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 6
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 11.11% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Oct 8, 2024 — scored 100 across 3 calls

Hanania argues Republicans are well positioned in the Senate map, calling a West Virginia flip certain and a Montana flip overwhelmingly likely, while treating Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan as up for grabs. He thinks Colin Allred is underpriced against Ted Cruz in Texas but still gives Allred only a 30% chance, implying Cruz holds the seat.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/785542c7-75f7-4fe6-9971-94458c6efaf7

### Oct 31, 2022 — scored 33.33 across 3 calls

Hanania argues that historical midterm base rates plus a likely pro-Democratic polling bias mean Republicans should win both chambers, putting the House at 90% and the Senate at about 65%. He also makes a gut call that Mehmet Oz will beat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania's Senate race.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/75e198fe-19b7-4060-8eb7-5dea6a88d1d2


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=richard-hanania