# Rick Moran — prediction record



## Is Rick Moran accurate?

Across 4 graded calls in 2 articles, Rick Moran scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 91.8, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 100%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 91.8
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 4
- **Clarity:** not enough data
- **Hedged:** not enough data
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Oct 17, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls

Moran argues the only open question is the size of the Republican Senate majority, which they expect to end up at 52 or 53 seats.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a0ca110f-3517-4afc-87ea-0e34df452ab2

### Oct 17, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls

Moran argues the only open question is the size of the Republican Senate majority, which they expect to land at 52-53 seats.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c88cc1b7-41d2-4a44-8cc6-0b9c1159344d


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=rick-moran