# Robby Soave — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 76.5%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 12.25
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 8
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 50.86 across 7 calls

Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/51b2250d-7167-4f78-987c-b410831699d8

### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call

Discussing the Selzer poll showing Harris ahead in Iowa, he said he doubted the result would hold on Election Day and expected Trump to carry Iowa.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cbb963fc-82c1-4447-ba8d-20e5f319864b


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=robby-soave