# Robert Cahaly — prediction record



## Is Robert Cahaly accurate?

Across 4 graded calls in 1 article, Robert Cahaly scores 43.33% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -46.29, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 43.33%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -46.29
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 4
- **Clarity:** not enough data
- **Hedged:** not enough data
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Oct 28, 2022 — scored 40 across 4 calls

The Trafalgar pollster forecast a strong Republican midterm: a House pickup of more than 25 and possibly 30 seats, and Republican control of the Senate with at least 51 seats, potentially 52 or more after a Georgia runoff. They also said they did not see Mastriano winning the Pennsylvania governor's race, though they expected them to close strongly.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e52cbc14-929b-4a39-9d59-9259fd9100d5


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=robert-cahaly