# Sam Wang — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 54.48%
- **MissedTakes Score:** -11.75
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 12
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 76.43 across 9 calls

Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0

### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 36.67 across 3 calls

Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef


---

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=sam-wang