# Sarah Isgur — prediction record



## Is Sarah Isgur accurate?

Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Sarah Isgur scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 100%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 0
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 1
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 25% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Nov 4, 2022 — scored 100 across 1 call

Isgur argues Tim Ryan will narrow the margin in Ohio and run well ahead of the Democratic gubernatorial ticket, but says he probably won't win, meaning JD Vance takes the Ohio Senate seat.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/472c7990-6aea-43fb-aa0b-9b487e8aeae4


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=sarah-isgur