# Seth Keshel — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 94.55%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 32.42
- **Graded articles:** 1
- **Graded individual calls:** 15
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (1)

### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 95.64 across 15 calls

Keshel forecast a broad Trump victory across the battlegrounds, saying a Harris win in Pennsylvania looks impossible, Michigan is a three-to-four point Trump state, Georgia goes Trump by 5.6 points, North Carolina by at least four, Florida by twelve to fifteen, and Nevada and Arizona fall to Trump as well; he rated New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota as Democratic leaners and Texas as a Trump leaner.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f667ed22-d09d-4ebd-a7db-acbe426c36bb


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=seth-keshel