# Spencer Kimball — prediction record



## Record

- **Accuracy:** 81.45%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 40.96
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 10
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Nov 3, 2024 — scored 77.58 across 5 calls

Emerson's polling director read the final battleground map as leaning Trump: he expected Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin to go Trump and put North Carolina in Trump's column by about one to two points, while saying Nevada still leaned to Harris and was the likeliest of the four Sun Belt/Western states to stay blue.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/583de0e9-4851-4c45-8f80-efbc988f33e9

### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 77.58 across 5 calls

The Emerson polling director argued the CNN polls showing Harris up five in Michigan and Wisconsin are outliers, and said Pennsylvania and Georgia look like they lean to Trump, North Carolina leans Trump by about a point or two, Wisconsin should go to Trump given historic underrepresentation of his vote, and Nevada still leans to Harris.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cb89ae96-e13d-4945-a01a-d5defaddc6ba


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=spencer-kimball