# Steve Deace — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 95.06% - **MissedTakes Score:** 76.26 - **Graded articles:** 8 - **Graded individual calls:** 29 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (8) ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 100 across 2 calls On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 97.3 across 3 calls On the eve of the election he said flatly that Trump would win the presidency, estimated a three-to-six-point Trump victory in Georgia based on early-voting data, and dismissed any chance of West Virginia going Democratic. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d86d0e2d-d087-42f0-a984-9da56aee6d3f ### Nov 1, 2024 — scored 85 across 9 calls Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39 ### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Discussing the 2024 presidential race, Deace said he expects Trump to win, while noting he would be frustrated by some of Trump's decisions once in office. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e11ee1a6-89eb-4cc0-a4f1-e1d1f3e5563c ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Deace states flatly that he expects Donald Trump to win the presidential election, using that expectation as the basis for buying a proposition about podcast interviews replacing legacy media. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a5755a22-7aa5-4d37-a330-174fe2b1c173 ### Oct 29, 2024 — scored 75 across 10 calls Deace laid out his final 2024 electoral map, giving Trump 297 electoral votes to Harris's 241, with Trump sweeping the Sun Belt (including North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona), winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but losing Michigan. He also forecast Republicans winning the Senate with 54 seats, including wins for McCormick in Pennsylvania and Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, plus an upset in Wisconsin's Senate race. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e92d1a64-147b-44d6-971c-aff6790f7d6f ### Oct 25, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Deace predicted Republicans would end up with at least 52 Senate seats after the election, calling 52 the new floor and suggesting the number could climb into the mid-50s. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/47a6cd84-e43d-4496-8346-a4e2772cebf6 ### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 94.5 across 2 calls Deace predicted Trump would carry Florida by a landslide margin of eight to 12 points, far above the state's historical presidential margins, and separately said he expects Republican Bernie Moreno to win the Ohio Senate race. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/32076273-ecda-474c-9c0b-1b3b6f6204b5 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=steve-deace