# Tim Miller — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 40.28% - **MissedTakes Score:** 33.08 - **Graded articles:** 6 - **Graded individual calls:** 12 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (6) ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 35.71 across 7 calls Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d ### Nov 4, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Miller argued that the Iowa polling trend pointed strongly toward Wisconsin staying in Harris's column, saying Selzer would have to be far off for Harris to lose the state. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a97e518b-b8f2-4baa-a75d-0a1a62473fc7 ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Discussing who inherits the MAGA movement, Miller said that regardless of the outcome for Vance's long-term standing, Vance would be unhappy after Election Day — an implicit call that the Trump-Vance ticket loses the presidential election. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/80989876-1302-491b-9b83-b2cb03d618f3 ### Oct 30, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Closing the show, Miller declared flatly that Kamala Harris will win the presidency. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4691bb90-4ffd-43f0-9ce6-3634e239c0dc ### Oct 28, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Miller said it would take something very surprising for Democrats to win the Montana Senate race, effectively calling it for the Republican despite Jon Tester being a strong candidate. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/79e8e343-06b5-4a36-b552-d78ce0986f9b ### Oct 25, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Miller argued that a President Harris would be checked by a Republican-controlled Senate, which at best for Democrats would be 51-49. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7e36d92b-1969-4d36-acd0-9c1d6567d9d8 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=tim-miller