# Todd Erzen — prediction record ## Is Todd Erzen accurate? Across 5 graded calls in 5 articles, Todd Erzen scores 20% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -20.2, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 20% - **MissedTakes Score:** -20.2 - **Graded articles:** 5 - **Graded individual calls:** 5 - **Clarity:** 100% - **Hedged:** 20% of claims - **Right when hedging:** not enough data - **Right when committing:** not enough data PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (5) ### Oct 30, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Harrison said they have considered the House lost to Democrats since Memorial Day, framing the post-election story as how quickly the first impeachment vote comes. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/96f3c49e-b3dd-4e1c-b6b7-e05660d1e9ea ### Oct 23, 2026 — scored 0 across 1 call Asked who wins Michigan's Senate race, Todd picked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, saying Michigan is ripe for the picking. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6158d829-d45e-4283-a43d-2018fd7c0aee ### Sep 27, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call Asked who wins the presidential election as of that day, Erzen picked Kamala Harris, rating their confidence a seven out of ten. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d6e8c569-3ac3-47a7-96d6-4b6c8bda10e4 ### Nov 4, 2022 — scored 0 across 1 call Harrison picked a Republican upset win in the Oregon governor's race as the most likely surprise of election night. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/76f4387d-2a1f-4a35-b530-59b8fbbdb74f ### Oct 26, 2022 — scored 0 across 1 call Erzen treated Kari Lake's victory in Arizona's governor race as all but settled, saying they will win. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6b58d50-e94e-4d5b-a12c-b37024adb64a --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=todd-erzen