# Todd McShay — prediction record ## Is Todd McShay accurate? Across 29 graded calls in 5 articles, Todd McShay scores 73.07% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 49.19, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 73.07% - **MissedTakes Score:** 49.19 - **Graded articles:** 5 - **Graded individual calls:** 29 - **Clarity:** 100% - **Hedged:** 25.28% of claims - **Right when hedging:** not enough data - **Right when committing:** not enough data PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (5) ### Nov 4, 2026 — scored 0.65 across 3 calls While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 ### Apr 16, 2026 — scored 95.76 across 1 call McShay's mock has the Chiefs drafting Arizona State wide receiver Jordan Tyson at No. 9, and also has the Jets trading up for Carnell Tate. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3e9e0ad-6dd1-4778-8ae6-c8679160d389 ### Apr 15, 2026 — scored 90.62 across 15 calls McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though they'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. They also predict seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd11036a-b55c-47a9-92e8-5b088260ca47 ### Mar 2, 2026 — scored 100 across 6 calls McShay projects the 2026 draft's top of the board: Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, Jeremiah Love inside the top five, Sonny Styles inside the top 10, Ty Simpson as the second quarterback and a first-rounder, and UCF edge Malachi Lawrence as a top-100 pick. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/da28d183-41a8-4991-977b-f02f73b6f29b ### Mar 20, 2025 — scored 73.99 across 4 calls McShay expects Tennessee to finalize on Cam Ward at No. 1, has Cleveland taking Shedeur Sanders at No. 2 and the Giants taking Travis Hunter at No. 3 in their mock draft 2.0, and feels strongly the top four picks are Ward, Abdul Carter, Hunter and Sanders. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/691a0ce2-2f15-4d0a-9192-232db8ed360b --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=todd-mcshay