# Tom Bevan — prediction record ## Record - **Accuracy:** 100% - **MissedTakes Score:** 51 - **Graded articles:** 4 - **Graded individual calls:** 4 - **Clarity:** 100% PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (4) ### Nov 5, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Bevan said that despite the shock Des Moines Register poll showing Harris ahead in Iowa, he did not believe she would actually carry the state, implying Trump wins there. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/81673a28-87bf-4e57-ba9f-a82a117e73d1 ### Oct 31, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Discussing Nebraska's split electoral votes, Bevan said Trump would carry Nebraska statewide and also win the non-Omaha congressional district, giving him three of the state's four electoral votes, while treating the Omaha-area district as Harris's for the taking. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/50f2d78f-d996-4518-b3f5-14d2fca3cf6e ### Oct 23, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Bevan argued the race had shifted toward Trump nationally and in the battlegrounds, and said he believed Trump held a slight edge in the presidential contest. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4f58fc26-9449-44c8-acbf-638eeb0b6d19 ### Oct 22, 2024 — scored 100 across 1 call Bevan argued Democrats face an uphill Senate map, saying flatly that they will lose the West Virginia Senate seat, which leaves them needing to pick off a Republican-held seat. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/74975ea0-527e-4284-89af-f2b7c7fb0ae2 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=tom-bevan