# Tom Pelissero — prediction record Tom Pelissero covers the NFL as an insider, appearing regularly on podcasts like Around the NFL and Move the Sticks. His reporting spans the league—draft positioning, player movement, roster decisions—with observations touching teams from Cleveland to Los Angeles and players from Cam Ward to Matthew Stafford. ## Is Tom Pelissero accurate? Across 38 graded calls in 18 articles, Tom Pelissero scores 82.13% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 60.08, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution. That ranks #5 of 87 ranked NFL pundits on the MissedTakes leaderboard. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 82.13% - **MissedTakes Score:** 60.08 - **Graded articles:** 18 - **Graded individual calls:** 38 - **Clarity:** 100% - **Hedged:** 63.65% of claims - **Right when hedging:** not enough data - **Right when committing:** not enough data LIMITED SAMPLE: between 10 and 29 graded articles. Treat with caution. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (18) ### Sep 25, 2026 — scored 100 across 2 calls Pelissero laid out the Giants' quarterback situation with Jameis Winston starting, said Jayden Daniels likely won't be back when Washington plays the Giants and that Caleb Williams is unlikely to play Monday night, and floated Joey Porter Jr. landing in Dallas and Kirk Cousins being traded in-season. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f26c21be-0655-4d27-81b3-86e4c8db564f ### Sep 23, 2026 — scored 62.5 across 4 calls Pelissero said the Giants' upcoming schedule (home vs. Tennessee, Washington, home vs. Arizona) offers three winnable games even with a backup quarterback, and that Washington's Jayden Daniels likely won't be back for that stretch. They also expect the winless Commanders to fall to 0-3 against Seattle. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e93f2f8d-ec24-4e3f-b158-dd1a518f9445 ### Jun 24, 2026 — scored 100 across 2 calls Guest-hosting, Tom Pelicero ran through the top offseason storylines and made a few concrete calls: Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson will both still be on Cleveland's roster in September, Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' quarterback job, and Kirk Cousins looks like the Raiders' opening-day starter. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ad4fe545-de54-476f-aff9-f2b49960ad43 ### Mar 2, 2026 — scored 100 across 2 calls Pelissero expects the Raiders to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall, and says Kirk Cousins will be released March 11 while Tua Tagovailoa will be released before March 13 if Miami can't trade them. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662ce1b7-daca-460b-a92d-ab72d022ebe0 ### Feb 26, 2026 — scored 100 across 2 calls Pelissero predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders and that Ty Simpson is the only other QB in the class seen as a possible early starter. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6889889a-e8b1-4888-b0aa-18ab8e982c68 ### Feb 26, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Pelissero expects Anthony Richardson to be moved out of Indianapolis, with Daniel Jones ready for week one as the Colts' starter and the club working toward a long-term deal or a tag for Jones. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/27270fd2-c9b5-47b0-9a46-0aeb8dad6695 ### Feb 26, 2026 — scored 100 across 1 call Pelissero predicts Malik Willis will land a deal worth $20-30 million per year, most likely with Miami or Arizona, and that Mac Jones will eventually be moved by the 49ers. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/12341beb-c261-46bc-838b-7272ac422cd9 ### Nov 26, 2025 — scored 0 across 1 call Pelissero praised Cleveland's rookie class and suggested linebacker Carson Schwesinger could be the defensive player of the year. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/53078171-5102-4c53-9860-26f490c11245 ### Nov 21, 2025 — scored 0 across 1 call Pelissero read the practice trend as a sign the Bengals may hold Joe Burrow out this week and target a Thanksgiving return against the Ravens; they also said the Ravens are the favorites to win the AFC North, and that Zac Taylor will most likely still be Bengals coach in 2026. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cc45d926-bf19-4291-a600-e29e16092bcd ### Sep 5, 2025 — scored 91.67 across 3 calls Pelissero said Matthew Stafford will start Sunday against the Texans despite back concerns, and that Nick Chubb will be Houston's lead back to open the season with Damien Pierce spelling them while Joe Mixon is out. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/976e18a8-f507-4a5c-9763-01bb637c59bd ### Aug 21, 2025 — scored 100 across 2 calls Pelissero doubted Micah Parsons would ultimately sit out, said the most logical outcome is Parsons showing up and playing out their contract, and pegged their eventual deal in the $45 million-per-year range; they also predicted the Vikings' week one starter opposite Justin Jefferson is not currently on their roster, floating Adam Thielen as a target, and said Justin Jefferson will be good to go for week one. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a7185069-741c-4dc1-b7c3-09775ddb0c32 ### Jun 13, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Pelissero predicted that Trey Hendrickson will eventually sign a multiyear extension with the Bengals and that TJ Watt will get a deal done with the Steelers. They also said Daniel Jones has a leg up in Indianapolis and expects Mike Tomlin to remain Steelers head coach as long as they want. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5493430e-5a30-4c06-b71e-4af19dc24118 ### May 30, 2025 — scored 92.37 across 3 calls Pelissero says it wouldn't shock them if Shedeur Sanders is part of an open quarterback competition in Cleveland heading into training camp, expects Cam Ward to be the Titans' starter by the preseason, and suggests that if Aaron Rodgers plays poorly the Steelers could hold a top-15 pick in the 2026 draft and target a quarterback. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/09766ec1-0261-470d-9bae-bd9ddbf816cf ### Apr 22, 2025 — scored 100 across 2 calls Pellisero expects Cam Ward to go first overall to Tennessee and Travis Hunter second to Cleveland, and says the league consensus is that the third tier of quarterbacks — Quinn Ewers, Kyle McCord, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard and Will Howard — will all be drafted between the third and fifth rounds. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3bab1bd9-c058-4780-bc59-e05c922d3d17 ### Apr 21, 2025 — scored 96.02 across 4 calls Pelissero says Cam Ward is the Titans' pick at the top of the 2025 draft and that Travis Hunter is most likely the Browns' selection at No. 2; they also endorse Tyler Warren as a top-10 pick, expects Ashton Jeanty inside the top 10, and names five under-the-radar players who could sneak into round one, including Emeka Egbuka between picks 20-25 and Tyler Shough (whom they peg more likely as a Day 2 pick). https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b7089cf4-c63d-4d43-84a4-072b1d2ee328 ### Apr 18, 2025 — scored 85.35 across 2 calls Pelissero says Cam Ward remains the presumptive No. 1 overall pick, expects Cleveland not to trade Travis Hunter at No. 2, believes Jalen Milroe goes sooner rather than later, and thinks Tyler Shough could be pushed into the first round. They also expect at least one star player (Ramsey, Aiyuk, Hendrickson or Cousins) to be traded around the draft. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9b5ff503-12b0-40fa-bc61-5c2b582a825f ### Apr 10, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Guest host Tom Pelissero laid out their ten biggest pre-draft questions, predicting Cam Ward goes No. 1 overall to the Titans, doubting five quarterbacks go in round one, and saying it's more likely than not that Kirk Cousins is not a starter next season while calling them staying as Falcons backup all year the least likely outcome. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/baa797cf-18fd-447c-bfb3-210bbbe9d748 ### Feb 24, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Pelissero expects the franchise tag to come for Tee Higgins and believes Russell Wilson will sign somewhere as a starting quarterback. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5998ad54-bf3a-43b0-9e63-5368c2e3caca ### Jan 31, 2025 — scored 50.39 across 2 calls Pelissero expects Kellen Moore to be hired as the Saints' next head coach right after the Super Bowl, doubts any team has a quarterback as its No. 1 overall player in the draft while still expecting Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders to be first-round picks, anticipates Mike McCarthy will get head-coaching opportunities in 2026, and sees Las Vegas as a plausible landing spot for Russell Wilson. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a7cc23b4-e0b9-4644-9228-c169afc24ab6 ### Jan 3, 2025 — scored 100 across 1 call Pelissero expects Travis Hunter, not Shedeur Sanders, to be the first Colorado player drafted, and says Kevin O'Connell will almost certainly win Coach of the Year. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0e500914-450e-43bd-ab4d-7682b55f474b --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. 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