Bears: 25 of 35 Pundits Picked Chicago at Lambeau, and Green Bay Won by 24 | MissedTakes Daily
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Going into Week 5 at Lambeau Field, pundit opinion on the Bears was about as lopsided as it gets: of the 35 pundits we tracked picking that game, 25 took Chicago to win on the road against Green Bay. The Packers won 31-7.
Every pundit who called it for the Bears on that game's outcome landed at zero accuracy. Because picking the road team against a baseline of simply taking the home side is a bigger swing when it's wrong, those calls also carried a skill score of -178, well below what you'd get from just defaulting to the Packers every time. The ten who took Green Bay at least got the winner right, though even they undersold how lopsided it would be. The closest score call of the bunch, a Packers win by 3, still missed the final margin by 21 points, and that was the single best of the 21 score predictions filed on the game.
That one game is dragging down the Bears' broader numbers on who wins and by how much. Across all tracked game-outcome calls on the Bears, accuracy sits at 57.8% with a slightly negative skill score (-5.11 on 90 graded calls), meaning those picks have run a shade worse than just taking the home team blind. Score predictions specifically are worse still: 49.1% accuracy and -4.6 skill across 43 graded calls. Those are two of the biggest categories of Bears coverage we track, so a chunk of what gets said about this team each week is landing close to a coin flip.
Other kinds of Bears calls have fared much better. Roster-spot predictions are 89.5% accurate across 38 graded calls (+15.79 skill), season win-total calls are 66.2% accurate on 13 graded calls (+95.38 skill), and the 13 graded playoff-berth calls on the Bears have hit at 84.6% (+127 skill). Mock-draft calls involving the Bears are solid too, at 65.2% accuracy across 45 graded picks.
Who to believe on the Bears
Among pundits with at least five graded Bears calls, Mike Moraitis stands out: 93.1% accuracy across 29 graded Bears takes, built mostly on a perfect record on roster-spot calls (28 graded, 100% accurate). At the other end, Bill Huber has gone just 3.3% on five graded Bears calls (including that Week 5 pick), and Richard Sherman sits at 39.5% on five. Those are small samples on both ends, but they're what we have.
With Caleb Williams working back from a hamstring issue, the newest Bears coverage is heavy on who starts at Atlanta in Week 6: Moraitis has Williams returning, with Case Keenum as the fallback over Tyson Bagent. Trade buzz around a Khalil Mack reunion is also everywhere right now, from Jerry Markarian and Carter Bahns, alongside Gene Chamberlain's argument that Chicago will again pass on an early-round edge rusher in the 2027 draft. None of that has a verdict yet. Jordan Dajani has also slotted the Bears into his "second tier" of playoff teams for 2026, a label the season will settle one way or the other.
Elsewhere: a week of mostly mock drafts and score calls
We graded 906 takes across the league in the past seven days, with mock draft picks (251) and score predictions (246) making up more than half of that volume, followed by game outcome picks (200). The best calls of the stretch were long-range season simulations that happened to land exactly right, including O'Shea Jackson Jr.'s game-by-game Rams forecast and a similar call from Rob Bushka, both scoring 100 accuracy. The worst included Adam Carlson's since-unrealized call on three Vikings trades and full 53-man roster projections for the Bills from Randy Gurzi and Joe Marino that missed across the board.
On award history, Matthew Stafford's 2025 MVP was picked by 24 of 68 ballots we tracked, and Tetairoa McMillan's Offensive Rookie of the Year was picked by just 5 of 29. For how everyone stacks up heading into this week, including the very small early samples at the top, see the full leaderboard.