How Accurate Are Election Pundits? 2024 by the Numbers
Every checkable call named pundits made about the 2024 US elections — race winners, margins, chamber control, seat counts — graded against certified results, with a naive guess scored on the same calls beside them. Figures as of 2026-10-06; they move as results are certified and graded.
- Graded calls
- 580
- Pundits graded
- 96
- Pundits' accuracy
- 77.5%
- Naive guess
- 34.4%
of 583 on the record
the seat's party holds it
How accurate were pundits' 2024 election predictions?
Pundits' checkable 2024 election calls averaged 77.5% accuracy across 580 graded calls from 96 pundits, each scored against the certified result.
Did pundits beat a naive guess?
Yes, by 43.1 points: in 2024 a naive guess — that the party holding each seat keeps it — would have scored 34.4% on the same calls, against the pundits' 77.5%.
Which election calls do pundits get right?
- Race Winners462 graded · naive guess 32.5%76.6%
- Chamber Control53 graded · naive guess 30.2%79.2%
- Race Margins43 graded · naive guess 53.5%81.4%
- Seat Counts21 graded · naive guess 46.7%85.7%
- House Popular Vote Margins1 graded · naive guess 98.3%44.5%
| Kind of call | Graded | Hit rate | Accuracy | Naive guess |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Winners | 462 | 76.6% | 76.6% | 32.5% |
| Chamber Control | 53 | 79.2% | 79.2% | 30.2% |
| Race Margins | 43 | 62.8% | 81.4% | 53.5% |
| Seat Counts | 21 | 81.0% | 85.7% | 46.7% |
| House Popular Vote Margins | 1 | 0.0% | 44.5% | 98.3% |
Where did most pundits get the 2024 elections wrong?
Control of the House: 4 of 14 pundits picked Republican, the winner.
| Race or chamber | Winner | Picked the winner | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control of the House | Republican | 4 of 14 | 28.6% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan | Donald Trump | 5 of 14 | 35.7% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin | Donald Trump | 4 of 13 | 30.8% |
| 2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | 3 of 7 | 42.9% |
| 2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 1 of 3 | 33.3% |
| 2024 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2 | Don Bacon | 0 of 3 | 0.0% |
Where did most pundits get it right?
| Race or chamber | Winner | Picked the winner | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 U.S. presidential election | Donald Trump | 34 of 57 | 59.6% |
| Control of the Senate | Republican | 30 of 30 | 100.0% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania | Donald Trump | 11 of 20 | 55.0% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona | Donald Trump | 16 of 17 | 94.1% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada | Donald Trump | 12 of 17 | 70.6% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina | Donald Trump | 16 of 17 | 94.1% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia | Donald Trump | 15 of 16 | 93.8% |
| 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia | Jim Justice | 10 of 10 | 100.0% |
| 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana | Tim Sheehy | 10 of 10 | 100.0% |
| 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania | Dave McCormick | 6 of 9 | 66.7% |
| 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas | Ted Cruz | 8 of 9 | 88.9% |
| 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas | Donald Trump | 6 of 7 | 85.7% |
Who is the most accurate election pundit?
| Pundit | Score | Accuracy | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Clay Travis | +74.2 | 98.3% | 27 |
| 2. Erick-Woods Erickson | +70.3 | 95.9% | 29 |
Cite these numbers
Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with credit and a link to this page. Please give the date — these figures move as results are certified and graded.
MissedTakes, "How Accurate Are Election Pundits? 2024 by the Numbers", missedtakes.co/elections/accuracy, accessed 2026-10-06.
The tables as CSV or markdown. How each call is graded, and the naive guess it is measured against, is in the methodology; every race links to the calls behind its row.