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The most accurate election pundits, ranked by record

Ranked by MissedTakes Score— how much better than a naive guess, not how often right. The naive guess for an election is that the party holding the seat keeps it, so someone who only ever calls the incumbent lands near zero however high their accuracy climbs. This is a pundit's election record alone; their NFL record, if they have one, is a separate number on their page. The methodology explains the arithmetic.

Ranked

#PunditScoreAccuracyGradedArticlesConfidence
1Clay Travis+74.298.32712limited
2Erick-Woods Erickson+68.795.52810limited

Building a record

Fewer than ten graded articles: shown, labeled provisional, not ranked. Most evidence first, so this list cannot become a second ranking.