How often NFL pundits hedge — and whether their hedges land
A hedge is the “probably”, the “could”, the “I wouldn’t be surprised if” wrapped around a call. We grade the call inside it either way. This page counts how often each pundit hedges, and compares how often their hedged calls and their plain calls come true. As of 2026-10-10.
- Pundits listed
- 171
- Claims hedged
- 23.2%
- Hedges undersell them
- 14
- Doubt was real
- 12
30+ claims read
across those pundits
right more often hedging
right more often committing
Hedged calls against plain calls
Each row is one pundit: the filled dot is their accuracy on hedged calls, the ring their accuracy on plain ones. The 32 pundits with enough graded calls on both sides, biggest gap in favor of the hedges first.
Hedged callsPlain calls
0%25%50%75%100%
Hedging against accuracy
One dot per pundit: how often they hedge, across; how often they are right overall, up. Bigger dots have more graded calls. Hover or tap a dot for its numbers.
Rich Eisen
Hedged 23.92% of 799 claims read60.5 accuracy · 461 graded calls
Colin Cowherd
Hedged 22.52% of 698 claims read54.9 accuracy · 415 graded calls
Nick Wright
Hedged 24.23% of 742 claims read59.5 accuracy · 378 graded calls
Gregg Rosenthal
Hedged 34.41% of 499 claims read62.3 accuracy · 316 graded calls
Kyle Crabbs
Hedged 14.29% of 327 claims read71.5 accuracy · 311 graded calls
Chris Brockman
Hedged 19.5% of 494 claims read59.0 accuracy · 285 graded calls
Daniel Jeremiah
Hedged 25.45% of 371 claims read74.7 accuracy · 276 graded calls
David Harrison
Hedged 20.22% of 376 claims read63.8 accuracy · 236 graded calls
Ross Jackson
Hedged 47.75% of 354 claims read66.0 accuracy · 234 graded calls
Jeff Kerr
Hedged 42.7% of 363 claims read75.6 accuracy · 183 graded calls
Joe Marino
Hedged 30.56% of 329 claims read77.6 accuracy · 170 graded calls
JP Acosta
Hedged 31.56% of 241 claims read57.4 accuracy · 140 graded calls
Richard Sherman
Hedged 33.26% of 245 claims read56.4 accuracy · 137 graded calls
Mike Renner
Hedged 31.76% of 406 claims read61.2 accuracy · 124 graded calls
Pat Fitzmaurice
Hedged 32.34% of 420 claims read68.1 accuracy · 124 graded calls
John Breech
Hedged 25.03% of 570 claims read48.8 accuracy · 120 graded calls
Jaime Eisner
Hedged 32.23% of 133 claims read47.8 accuracy · 120 graded calls
Bucky Brooks
Hedged 33.22% of 249 claims read76.5 accuracy · 118 graded calls
Brady Quinn
Hedged 15.43% of 113 claims read52.6 accuracy · 110 graded calls
Derek Brown
Hedged 42.64% of 483 claims read64.4 accuracy · 107 graded calls
John Middlekauff
Hedged 42.08% of 234 claims read62.1 accuracy · 106 graded calls
Kyle Brandt
Hedged 19.57% of 114 claims read53.9 accuracy · 105 graded calls
Andrew Erickson
Hedged 40.11% of 265 claims read65.9 accuracy · 102 graded calls
Cynthia Frelund
Hedged 16.24% of 104 claims read60.3 accuracy · 100 graded calls
Jason McIntyre
Hedged 21.98% of 199 claims read62.8 accuracy · 98 graded calls
Danny Parkins
Hedged 18.15% of 254 claims read57.9 accuracy · 97 graded calls
Alain Poupart
Hedged 41.03% of 186 claims read78.2 accuracy · 91 graded calls
Pete Prisco
Hedged 8.09% of 147 claims read55.9 accuracy · 83 graded calls
Brian Peacock
Hedged 28.06% of 144 claims read70.2 accuracy · 82 graded calls
Tyler Sullivan
Hedged 43.6% of 208 claims read57.7 accuracy · 79 graded calls
Marcus Mosher
Hedged 68.78% of 93 claims read80.5 accuracy · 77 graded calls
Ryan Reynolds
Hedged 18.18% of 71 claims read50.1 accuracy · 70 graded calls
Nick Shook
Hedged 30.56% of 121 claims read67.8 accuracy · 70 graded calls
Jourdan Rodrigue
Hedged 15.25% of 106 claims read60.0 accuracy · 67 graded calls
Mel Kiper
Hedged 20.41% of 104 claims read82.2 accuracy · 66 graded calls
Manti Te'o
Hedged 17.36% of 66 claims read35.1 accuracy · 65 graded calls
Randy Gurzi
Hedged 34.78% of 142 claims read43.4 accuracy · 65 graded calls
Rich Hribar
Hedged 29.25% of 166 claims read68.8 accuracy · 64 graded calls
Brandon Carney
Hedged 24.56% of 148 claims read61.0 accuracy · 62 graded calls
Jared Dubin
Hedged 30.61% of 126 claims read46.5 accuracy · 62 graded calls
Bill Huber
Hedged 50.62% of 174 claims read83.3 accuracy · 62 graded calls
Nathan Jahnke
Hedged 57.22% of 543 claims read73.7 accuracy · 62 graded calls
Patricia Traina
Hedged 50.78% of 101 claims read52.5 accuracy · 61 graded calls
Jacob Westendorf
Hedged 23.59% of 116 claims read64.8 accuracy · 60 graded calls
Jamie Erdahl
Hedged 7.5% of 61 claims read35.4 accuracy · 59 graded calls
Jonas Knox
Hedged 28.85% of 62 claims read63.0 accuracy · 58 graded calls
Zach Roberts
Hedged 56.47% of 83 claims read83.0 accuracy · 58 graded calls
Also here: Brendon Nelson · Hedged 56.25% of 35 claims read
Mitchell Eisenstein
Hedged 20.83% of 78 claims read51.3 accuracy · 57 graded calls
Pat Gustavson
Hedged 21.73% of 121 claims read71.2 accuracy · 57 graded calls
Blaine Grisak
Hedged 61.04% of 97 claims read50.0 accuracy · 54 graded calls
Matt Miller
Hedged 37.03% of 67 claims read84.6 accuracy · 52 graded calls
Philip Hughes
Hedged 33.67% of 81 claims read100.0 accuracy · 50 graded calls
Also here: Rafael Zamorano · Hedged 33.95% of 65 claims read
Ethan Hurwitz
Hedged 56.78% of 119 claims read75.0 accuracy · 49 graded calls
Jordan Dajani
Hedged 26.75% of 212 claims read56.6 accuracy · 48 graded calls
Peter Schrager
Hedged 35.28% of 59 claims read70.3 accuracy · 48 graded calls
Keith Sanchez
Hedged 0% of 47 claims read62.6 accuracy · 47 graded calls
Dan Pizzuta
Hedged 26.59% of 48 claims read77.8 accuracy · 47 graded calls
Jeff Cavanaugh
Hedged 15.52% of 101 claims read75.5 accuracy · 44 graded calls
Lance Zierlein
Hedged 38.58% of 87 claims read67.5 accuracy · 44 graded calls
Doug Joubert
Hedged 42.59% of 83 claims read66.7 accuracy · 44 graded calls
Scott Bogman
Hedged 13.33% of 67 claims read72.7 accuracy · 43 graded calls
Nate Tice
Hedged 27.74% of 112 claims read83.5 accuracy · 42 graded calls
Chris Simms
Hedged 28.13% of 55 claims read53.8 accuracy · 42 graded calls
LaVar Arrington
Hedged 14.29% of 44 claims read39.7 accuracy · 41 graded calls
Jake Ciely
Hedged 15.99% of 141 claims read66.3 accuracy · 41 graded calls
Ryan McCrystal
Hedged 13.89% of 36 claims read60.5 accuracy · 36 graded calls
Field Yates
Hedged 11.93% of 55 claims read78.5 accuracy · 35 graded calls
Mike Moraitis
Hedged 56.34% of 134 claims read58.3 accuracy · 35 graded calls
Albert Breer
Hedged 49% of 80 claims read61.7 accuracy · 34 graded calls
Tom Pelissero
Hedged 65.71% of 103 claims read82.4 accuracy · 34 graded calls
Shannon Sharpe
Hedged 27.88% of 63 claims read63.6 accuracy · 32 graded calls
Chad Ochocinco Johnson
Hedged 36.11% of 74 claims read43.3 accuracy · 32 graded calls
Cody Roark
Hedged 2.78% of 41 claims read96.5 accuracy · 29 graded calls
Peter Bukowski
Hedged 48.61% of 82 claims read56.9 accuracy · 29 graded calls
Mike Florio
Hedged 62.56% of 92 claims read65.8 accuracy · 29 graded calls
Chris Broussard
Hedged 12.03% of 116 claims read56.9 accuracy · 27 graded calls
Greg Jennings
Hedged 11.83% of 63 claims read36.0 accuracy · 26 graded calls
Todd McShay
Hedged 15.32% of 44 claims read91.2 accuracy · 26 graded calls
Dan Patrick
Hedged 36.67% of 31 claims read52.1 accuracy · 26 graded calls
Ryan Wormeli
Hedged 39.41% of 31 claims read52.0 accuracy · 26 graded calls
Ryan Tracy
Hedged 26.78% of 49 claims read47.6 accuracy · 25 graded calls
Mike Mayock
Hedged 27.78% of 31 claims read60.5 accuracy · 25 graded calls
Jay Morrison
Hedged 45.3% of 61 claims read66.7 accuracy · 24 graded calls
Simon Hunter
Hedged 30.23% of 117 claims read61.6 accuracy · 23 graded calls
Tom Strachan
Hedged 45.88% of 105 claims read65.9 accuracy · 23 graded calls
Carter Bahns
Hedged 53.65% of 169 claims read45.3 accuracy · 23 graded calls
Conor Orr
Hedged 0% of 50 claims read12.9 accuracy · 22 graded calls
Kevin Wildes
Hedged 15.63% of 60 claims read44.7 accuracy · 22 graded calls
Mike Kadlick
Hedged 32.14% of 35 claims read28.4 accuracy · 22 graded calls
Daniel Wade
Hedged 39.64% of 51 claims read77.2 accuracy · 21 graded calls
Chris Long
Hedged 19.89% of 36 claims read40.6 accuracy · 20 graded calls
Eric Crocker
Hedged 25.49% of 35 claims read56.1 accuracy · 20 graded calls
Joe Pisapia
Hedged 37.65% of 40 claims read73.6 accuracy · 20 graded calls
Bryan DeArdo
Hedged 54.17% of 87 claims read65.2 accuracy · 20 graded calls
Patrick Claybon
Hedged 6% of 65 claims read66.5 accuracy · 19 graded calls
TJ Jefferson
Hedged 9.43% of 65 claims read27.5 accuracy · 19 graded calls
Chad Millman
Hedged 12.5% of 49 claims read53.1 accuracy · 19 graded calls
Seth Walder
Hedged 16% of 41 claims read46.7 accuracy · 19 graded calls
Matt Verderame
Hedged 36.11% of 41 claims read15.6 accuracy · 19 graded calls
Chris Welsh
Hedged 38.43% of 50 claims read48.3 accuracy · 19 graded calls
Chris Clark
Hedged 50% of 38 claims read77.1 accuracy · 19 graded calls
Brendan Donahue
Hedged 0% of 33 claims read76.4 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Pamela Maldonado
Hedged 0% of 33 claims read55.1 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Also here: Jeremy Pargo · Hedged 0% of 33 claims read
Bobby Kownack
Hedged 0% of 34 claims read41.3 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Aaron Schatz
Hedged 5.95% of 32 claims read53.9 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Eric Moody
Hedged 13.33% of 45 claims read62.0 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Matt Harmon
Hedged 29.29% of 36 claims read79.2 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Gilberto Manzano
Hedged 32.35% of 37 claims read16.7 accuracy · 18 graded calls
Dan Parr
Hedged 0% of 33 claims read56.6 accuracy · 17 graded calls
Gennaro Filice
Hedged 16.67% of 35 claims read54.6 accuracy · 17 graded calls
Brooke Cersosimo
Hedged 20% of 34 claims read55.0 accuracy · 17 graded calls
Michael Irvin
Hedged 23.53% of 44 claims read53.6 accuracy · 16 graded calls
Ollie Connolly
Hedged 36.06% of 35 claims read51.4 accuracy · 16 graded calls
Ralph Ventre
Hedged 82.5% of 41 claims read66.7 accuracy · 16 graded calls
Kent Swanson
Hedged 17.61% of 54 claims read60.4 accuracy · 15 graded calls
Jordan Reid
Hedged 14.29% of 41 claims read86.6 accuracy · 14 graded calls
Tom Jensen
Hedged 25% of 43 claims read63.6 accuracy · 12 graded calls
Chad Jensen
Hedged 52.19% of 71 claims read73.5 accuracy · 12 graded calls
Clarence Hill
Hedged 29.63% of 36 claims read51.7 accuracy · 11 graded calls
Donnie Druin
Hedged 41% of 76 claims read100.0 accuracy · 11 graded calls
Sayre Bedinger
Hedged 42.58% of 42 claims read40.0 accuracy · 11 graded calls
Greg Auman
Hedged 46.25% of 67 claims read75.0 accuracy · 11 graded calls
Nick Pedone
Hedged 62.54% of 34 claims read100.0 accuracy · 11 graded calls
Jack Markowski
Hedged 68% of 35 claims read83.3 accuracy · 11 graded calls
John Shipley
Hedged 56.53% of 123 claims read80.6 accuracy · 10 graded calls
Jesse Holley
Hedged 16.07% of 33 claims read63.9 accuracy · 9 graded calls
Steven Ruiz
Hedged 34.56% of 53 claims read57.1 accuracy · 9 graded calls
Jared Koch
Hedged 68.95% of 74 claims read83.3 accuracy · 9 graded calls
Fox Sports
Hedged 60.45% of 79 claims read87.5 accuracy · 8 graded calls
Trevor Ripley
Hedged 61.96% of 35 claims read51.9 accuracy · 8 graded calls
Hondo Carpenter
Hedged 26.92% of 37 claims read100.0 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Garrett Podell
Hedged 36.86% of 65 claims read47.6 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Christian Booher
Hedged 47.56% of 96 claims read40.1 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Jason La Canfora
Hedged 49.24% of 40 claims read25.0 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Pete Martuneac
Hedged 51.14% of 32 claims read45.7 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Cody Rourke
Hedged 51.79% of 32 claims read20.0 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Tucker Franklin
Hedged 54.35% of 38 claims read70.1 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Jeremy Brener
Hedged 58.66% of 54 claims read75.0 accuracy · 7 graded calls
Rob Bushka
Hedged 29.78% of 33 claims read20.0 accuracy · 6 graded calls
Zachary Pereles
Hedged 40.12% of 141 claims read60.0 accuracy · 6 graded calls
Ian Rapoport
Hedged 73.11% of 31 claims read97.1 accuracy · 6 graded calls
Ryan Wilson
Hedged 13.83% of 49 claims read67.1 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Gavin Carlson
Hedged 19.23% of 30 claims read80.0 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Mike Harmon
Hedged 28.97% of 33 claims read92.2 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Eric Edholm
Hedged 31.6% of 50 claims read73.7 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Josh Edwards
Hedged 40.81% of 135 claims read64.4 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Thomas Martinez
Hedged 46.33% of 95 claims read25.0 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Charlie Campbell
Hedged 46.47% of 1000 claims read99.2 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Bradley Locker
Hedged 48.22% of 73 claims read86.7 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Henry McKenna
Hedged 49.76% of 64 claims read50.0 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Jerry Markarian
Hedged 49.97% of 63 claims read100.0 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Gene Chamberlain
Hedged 50% of 41 claims read71.0 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Parker Hurley
Hedged 63.53% of 47 claims read66.7 accuracy · 5 graded calls
Eric Williams
Hedged 24.12% of 102 claims read50.0 accuracy · 4 graded calls
Walt
Hedged 25.9% of 780 claims read38.9 accuracy · 4 graded calls
Michael Hanich
Hedged 73.33% of 30 claims read66.7 accuracy · 4 graded calls
Matty Lane
Hedged 25.93% of 53 claims read67.7 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Moe Moton
Hedged 29.44% of 68 claims read66.7 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Matt Severance
Hedged 38.46% of 31 claims read98.4 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Mike Fanelli
Hedged 39.02% of 197 claims read66.7 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Lane Mills
Hedged 43.77% of 38 claims read0.0 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Ralph Vacchiano
Hedged 48.04% of 121 claims read55.7 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Nick Faria
Hedged 70.26% of 103 claims read100.0 accuracy · 3 graded calls
Justin Melo
Hedged 25.22% of 49 claims read50.0 accuracy · 2 graded calls
Rob Rang
Hedged 50.83% of 105 claims read23.9 accuracy · 2 graded calls
Mike Clay
Hedged 35.24% of 33 claims read0.0 accuracy · 1 graded calls
Jim Moorman
Hedged 50.6% of 30 claims read0.0 accuracy · 1 graded calls
Josh Alper
Hedged 72% of 30 claims read100.0 accuracy · 1 graded calls
How often pundits hedge
How the 171 pundits spread by the share of their claims that carried a hedge; the middle pundit hedges 32.1%.
Pundits in each band
13
29
36
33
26
19
10
4
1
020406080
hedges nothingshare of claims hedged (%)hedges most
Are they right more often when they hedge?
Accuracy on graded hedged calls against graded plain ones, for every pundit with at least 10 of the first and 20 of the second. Without hedging says whether their plain calls are more or less accurate than their hedged ones — “Same Accuracy” when the two are within five points. The gap is amber where the hedged calls land more often, blue where the plain ones do, gray inside those five points.
| Pundit | Hedged | Plain | Gap | Without hedging |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1John Breech | 92.59% (11) | 48.97% (108) | +43.6 | Less Accurate |
| 2Alain Poupart | 100% (10) | 71.98% (81) | +28 | Less Accurate |
| 3Albert Breer | 76.08% (10) | 51.79% (23) | +24.3 | Less Accurate |
| 4Manti Te'o | 58.33% (10) | 35.5% (55) | +22.8 | Less Accurate |
| 5David Harrison | 80.98% (13) | 60.67% (222) | +20.3 | Less Accurate |
| 6Chris Brockman | 73.29% (56) | 55.16% (229) | +18.1 | Less Accurate |
| 7Kyle Brandt | 72.81% (14) | 55.06% (91) | +17.8 | Less Accurate |
| 8Ross Jackson | 69.77% (38) | 53.23% (194) | +16.5 | Less Accurate |
| 9Andrew Erickson | 72.82% (23) | 58.26% (79) | +14.6 | Less Accurate |
| 10Nick Wright | 65.13% (64) | 51.97% (313) | +13.2 | Less Accurate |
| 11John Middlekauff | 66.53% (42) | 54.03% (63) | +12.5 | Less Accurate |
| 12Pat Fitzmaurice | 73.62% (29) | 62.69% (95) | +10.9 | Less Accurate |
| 13Richard Sherman | 66.15% (36) | 56.41% (101) | +9.7 | Less Accurate |
| 14Danny Parkins | 60.15% (15) | 55.1% (82) | +5 | Less Accurate |
| 15Gregg Rosenthal | 62.81% (74) | 60.15% (241) | +2.7 | Same Accuracy |
| 16Rich Eisen | 61.38% (99) | 60.57% (361) | +0.8 | Same Accuracy |
| 17Peter Schrager | 71.36% (14) | 71.58% (34) | -0.2 | Same Accuracy |
| 18Jeff Kerr | 80.39% (31) | 80.95% (152) | -0.6 | Same Accuracy |
| 19JP Acosta | 57.47% (22) | 60.87% (118) | -3.4 | Same Accuracy |
| 20Colin Cowherd | 54.19% (63) | 57.91% (351) | -3.7 | Same Accuracy |
| 21Matt Miller | 75.94% (10) | 85.69% (42) | -9.7 | More Accurate |
| 22Tyler Sullivan | 49% (18) | 59.59% (61) | -10.6 | More Accurate |
| 23Marcus Mosher | 76.72% (48) | 88.25% (29) | -11.5 | More Accurate |
| 24Bucky Brooks | 69.72% (16) | 82.13% (101) | -12.4 | More Accurate |
| 25Daniel Jeremiah | 61.69% (42) | 75.42% (234) | -13.7 | More Accurate |
How often they hedge
The share of each pundit’s claims that carried a hedge, averaged by article like every number on this site, for pundits with at least 30 claims read. The kinds: leans (“probably”, “likely”); possibilities (“could”, “might”); long shots (“wouldn’t shock me”); toss-ups (“50-50”); conditions (“if he stays healthy”).
| Pundit | Hedged | Claims read | Kinds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ralph Ventre | 82.5% | 41 | leans 31, possibilities 3 |
| 2Michael Hanich | 73.33% | 30 | leans 8, possibilities 7, conditions 4 |
| 3Ian Rapoport | 73.11% | 31 | leans 11, conditions 7, possibilities 2, long shots 2 |
| 4Josh Alper | 72% | 30 | leans 15, conditions 3, possibilities 1 |
| 5Nick Faria | 70.26% | 103 | leans 19, possibilities 10, conditions 1 |
| 6Jared Koch | 68.95% | 74 | leans 34, possibilities 10, conditions 4 |
| 7Marcus Mosher | 68.78% | 93 | leans 38, possibilities 9, long shots 8, conditions 7 |
| 8Jack Markowski | 68% | 35 | leans 16, possibilities 4, conditions 4 |
| 9Tom Pelissero | 65.71% | 103 | leans 45, possibilities 12, long shots 6, conditions 5 |
| 10Parker Hurley | 63.53% | 47 | leans 19, possibilities 5, conditions 5 |
| 11Mike Florio | 62.56% | 92 | leans 19, possibilities 13, conditions 13, long shots 3 |
| 12Nick Pedone | 62.54% | 34 | leans 15, possibilities 1, conditions 1 |
| 13Trevor Ripley | 61.96% | 35 | leans 13, possibilities 11 |
| 14Blaine Grisak | 61.04% | 97 | leans 21, possibilities 5, long shots 2, conditions 1 |
| 15Fox Sports | 60.45% | 79 | leans 33, possibilities 8, conditions 6 |
| 16Jeremy Brener | 58.66% | 54 | leans 13, possibilities 8, conditions 3 |
| 17Nathan Jahnke | 57.22% | 543 | leans 226, possibilities 48, conditions 45, long shots 6 |
| 18Ethan Hurwitz | 56.78% | 119 | leans 23, possibilities 8, conditions 2 |
| 19John Shipley | 56.53% | 123 | leans 45, possibilities 10, conditions 4 |
| 20Zach Roberts | 56.47% | 83 | leans 9, possibilities 7, conditions 1 |
| 21Mike Moraitis | 56.34% | 134 | leans 45, conditions 12, possibilities 6, long shots 2 |
| 22Brendon Nelson | 56.25% | 35 | possibilities 10, leans 8, long shots 2, conditions 1 |
| 23Tucker Franklin | 54.35% | 38 | leans 15, possibilities 4 |
| 24Bryan DeArdo | 54.17% | 87 | leans 25, possibilities 17, conditions 9 |
| 25Carter Bahns | 53.65% | 169 | leans 45, possibilities 30, long shots 5, conditions 4 |
How a hedge is read, and why a hedged call is still graded as the call it wraps: the methodology, Amendment 21.