NFL prediction accuracy, by type
We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. A prediction earns a place here by being specific enough that reality can settle it — the methodology sets out how each kind is scored.
- Kinds of prediction
- 35
- Takes logged
- 26,861
- Graded
- 10,554
- Average accuracy
- 61.6
32 with results
checked against reality
out of 100
How each kind scores
Average accuracy across every graded call of that kind, out of 100. Bar length is the score; the count beside it is how much evidence sits behind it.
- Mock Draft Picks65.4 · 2996 graded
- Game Outcome Picks57.9 · 2135 graded
- Roster Spot Calls90.2 · 1501 graded
- Depth Chart Calls88.1 · 579 graded
- Score Predictions59.3 · 511 graded
- Playoff Picks59.5 · 504 graded
- Division Winners27.4 · 366 graded
- Award Picks21.2 · 355 graded
- Season Win Totals49.1 · 307 graded
- Positional Finishes35.0 · 292 graded
- Conference Champions25.1 · 194 graded
- Position Order Calls77.8 · 183 graded
- Trade and Signing Calls52.9 · 181 graded
- Sleeper Calls53.1 · 179 graded
- Power Rankings66.1 · 160 graded
- Player Season Numbers35.9 · 153 graded
- Super Bowl Picks34.3 · 139 graded
- Top Player Lists56.9 · 81 graded
- Coach Award Picks18.2 · 67 graded
- Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls0.0 · 65 graded
- Fantasy Rankings66.1 · 58 graded
- Seeding, Byes and Home Field39.2 · 56 graded
- Team Draft Slot Calls78.2 · 47 graded
- Combine Measurements68.8 · 41 graded
- Fantasy Bust Calls57.9 · 38 graded
- Position Group Rankings52.5 · 16 graded
- Prospect vs Prospect Calls78.6 · 16 graded
- Head Coach Rankings41.7 · 7 graded
- Combine Superlatives100.0 · 4 graded
- Fantasy Defense Calls52.8 · 3 graded
- Fantasy Defense Rankings54.2 · 3 graded
- Draft Bust Calls50.0 · 2 graded
Logged, not yet settled
These have claims recorded against them and nothing to check them against yet. They fill in as the season resolves.
- Surprise Team Calls265 waiting
- Availability Calls234 waiting
- Position Group Finish17 waiting
The punditry calendar
Permalink
When each kind of take actually gets made, every season pooled — the industry has seasons of its own. A July win-total call and a December one sound alike and are graded very differently, which is the point of the difficulty weighting.
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depth Chart Calls | 17 | 79 | 161 | 175 | 124 | 142 | 211 | 2742 | 1154 | 23 | 11 | 14 |
| Mock Draft Picks | 187 | 537 | 811 | 1805 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 314 | 481 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Sleeper Calls | 26 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 100 | 69 | 176 | 1712 | 665 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Game Outcome Picks | 457 | 17 | 8 | 33 | 209 | 42 | 61 | 138 | 1087 | 130 | 147 | 159 |
| Roster Spot Calls | 4 | 18 | 19 | 81 | 92 | 38 | 160 | 1945 | 77 | 1 | 1 | |
| Positional Finishes | 18 | 21 | 50 | 21 | 35 | 66 | 128 | 494 | 378 | 49 | 12 | 42 |