Prediction accuracy, by type
We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. A prediction earns a place here by being specific enough that reality can settle it — the methodology sets out how each kind is scored.
- Kinds of prediction
- 49
- Takes logged
- 36,541
- Graded
- 15,039
- Average accuracy
- 63.8
38 with results
checked against reality
out of 100
How each kind scores
Average accuracy across every graded call of that kind, out of 100. Bar length is the score; the count beside it is how much evidence sits behind it.
- Mock Draft Picks66.1 · 2917 graded
- Game Outcome Picks57.8 · 2662 graded
- Race Winners69.9 · 1782 graded
- Roster Spot Calls86.6 · 1737 graded
- Score Predictions62.5 · 1565 graded
- Depth Chart Calls87.7 · 500 graded
- Playoff Picks60.0 · 478 graded
- Division Winners27.5 · 349 graded
- Award Picks23.2 · 328 graded
- Control of Congress75.4 · 321 graded
- Season Win Totals48.8 · 275 graded
- Trade and Signing Calls68.5 · 248 graded
- Positional Finishes36.8 · 207 graded
- Conference Champions25.3 · 186 graded
- Position Order Calls78.1 · 184 graded
- Sleeper Calls52.8 · 178 graded
- Power Rankings63.0 · 162 graded
- Super Bowl Picks35.2 · 132 graded
- Player Season Numbers38.9 · 131 graded
- Seat Counts49.8 · 129 graded
- Race Margins73.9 · 90 graded
- Top Player Lists56.8 · 73 graded
- Coach Award Picks18.2 · 66 graded
- Fantasy Rankings66.1 · 51 graded
- Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls62.0 · 50 graded
- Seeding, Byes and Home Field37.5 · 48 graded
- Team Draft Slot Calls78.2 · 46 graded
- Combine Measurements68.8 · 41 graded
- Fantasy Bust Calls57.9 · 38 graded
- Position Group Rankings52.5 · 16 graded
- Prospect vs Prospect Calls78.6 · 14 graded
- Fantasy Defense Rankings58.7 · 9 graded
- Fantasy Defense Calls66.7 · 7 graded
- Head Coach Rankings41.7 · 7 graded
- Combine Superlatives100.0 · 4 graded
- House Popular Vote Margins76.8 · 4 graded
- Draft Bust Calls50.0 · 2 graded
- Seats Most Likely to Flip94.8 · 2 graded
The punditry calendar
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When each kind of take gets made, every season pooled, March (the new league year) to February (the Super Bowl), with related kinds grouped into one row. Each row is shaded against its own busiest month and the rows run in order of it, so reading down is reading through the year. A July win-total call and a December one sound alike and are graded very differently — the point of the difficulty weighting.
| Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Takes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Calls | 893 | 1917 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 407 | 1078 | 537 | 255 | 9 | 212 | 695 | 6,039 |
| Player Performance Calls | 58 | 32 | 129 | 95 | 197 | 1751 | 394 | 62 | 35 | 4 | 26 | 37 | 2,820 |
| Fantasy Calls | 9 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 35 | 339 | 184 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 700 |
| Roster Calls | 336 | 304 | 245 | 189 | 412 | 4899 | 1459 | 1490 | 713 | 20 | 55 | 369 | 10,491 |
| Power Rankings | 68 | 30 | 84 | 85 | 159 | 592 | 444 | 382 | 113 | 23 | 43 | 32 | 2,055 |
| Season Outcome Calls | 56 | 30 | 60 | 34 | 59 | 229 | 424 | 75 | 39 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 1,033 |
| Playoff Calls | 70 | 21 | 101 | 46 | 203 | 372 | 1331 | 379 | 292 | 58 | 74 | 14 | 2,961 |
| Award Calls | 9 | 19 | 36 | 30 | 45 | 186 | 491 | 115 | 98 | 19 | 136 | 58 | 1,242 |
| Super Bowl Picks | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 125 | 21 | 16 | 1 | 37 | 40 | 300 |
| Game Calls | 2 | 125 | 15 | 38 | 140 | 1390 | 1863 | 766 | 96 | 392 | 48 | 4,875 |
What each row holds
- Draft Calls
- Mock Draft Picks 4,926 ·Combine Measurements 462 ·Position Order Calls 302 ·Team Draft Slot Calls 278 ·Draft Bust Calls 40 ·Prospect vs Prospect Calls 21 ·Combine Superlatives 10
- Player Performance Calls
- Sleeper Calls 1,251 ·Player Season Numbers 1,220 ·Top Player Lists 349
- Fantasy Calls
- Fantasy Bust Calls 409 ·Fantasy Rankings 262 ·Fantasy Defense Calls 19 ·Fantasy Defense Rankings 10
- Roster Calls
- Depth Chart Calls 5,885 ·Roster Spot Calls 2,500 ·Trade and Signing Calls 1,937 ·Contract Calls 169
- Power Rankings
- Positional Finishes 1,301 ·Power Rankings 549 ·Position Group Rankings 92 ·Position Group Finish 72 ·Head Coach Rankings 41
- Season Outcome Calls
- Season Win Totals 1,033
- Playoff Calls
- Playoff Picks 1,365 ·Division Winners 1,155 ·Conference Champions 441
- Award Calls
- Award Picks 820 ·Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls 295 ·Coach Award Picks 127
- Super Bowl Picks
- Super Bowl Picks 300
- Game Calls
- Game Outcome Picks 3,102 ·Score Predictions 1,773
Logged, not yet settled
These have claims recorded against them and nothing to check them against yet. They fill in as results come in.
- Availability Calls1032 waiting
- Surprise Team Calls283 waiting
- Contract Calls169 waiting
- Position Group Finish72 waiting
- Fed Decisions18 waiting
- Direction Calls7 waiting
- Data Calls4 waiting
- Index Targets3 waiting
- Fed Rate Path1 waiting
- Treasury Yields1 waiting
Defined, nothing logged yet
The grader understands these and is waiting for a pundit to make one.